Wild cotton rally disrupts yarn business-五游网

Reserve offer on July 12 totals 30020.032 tons, which is completely sold. Average price is 14104 yuan, up from yesterday’s 13858. Price ranged from a low of 12890 to a high of 14770

As of July 12, cumulative reserve sales totaled 1243908.45 tons, including 296306.06 tons of imported styles (98.16%) and 947602.39 tons of domestic reserve (97.84%).

On July 12, CNCotton B is 13644, up 48. CC Index is 13666 yuan, up 1.

While CF1701 soared again to 15380 today, 2015/16 Xinjiang offers from inland warehouses appear less confident in following futures market higher. T3128B has been sold at 14200—14400 in the past two days in Jiangsu and Henan. Price discount is very limited even for big purchase.

The broad-based rally in domestic cotton market caused any cotton yarn traders in east/south china to reduce buying from domestic mills. Inquiries and sales for OE10S-OE21S/C21S/C40S have declined significant from May/June. Traders noted that some yarn makers have raised C40S and below counts by 400-500 yuan and some large plants even offer 800-1000 yuan higher, which is not accepted by merchants and weavers. Meanwhile, cotton spinners, clothing plants and trading companies have a strong hope for policy change that will boost cotton supply. A hasty booking will lead to very high risk once cotton price tumbles in July.

Cotton spinners in Henan and Hubei said recent hike in cotton price is already moving to downstream weavers and clothing sectors. But yarn price only gained 500-1000 yuan, which is by no means comparable to a price rally of 2000 yuan on ZCE cotton and reserve auction. Grey fabric price is trying to head higher, but faced strong pressure from domestic and export market. One 50000-spindle mill in Henan said premiums over tendered reserves keep moving higher and 2015/16 physical price posted an even stronger gain, which resulted in 500-1000 yuan loss for spinning C21S, C32S and C40S. The mill, however, in order to fulfill the order, has nothing to do but battling for any desirable reserve styles from trading companies, and this eventually pushed price further higher. There seems to be no way out of the strange situation but to idle capacities.

7月12日，中国储备棉管理总公司计划挂牌出库销售储备棉3万吨，全部为国产棉，实际成交3万吨，成交率100%，连续11个工作日全部成交。成交平均价格14104元/吨，折3128价格14982元/吨。

当日最高成交价14770元/吨，共计260.9730吨，承储在邯郸市棉麻总公司曲周棉花储备库；最低成交价12890元/吨，共计13.2420吨，承储在陕西大荔恒泰物流有限公司。

截至7月12日，2015/2016年度储备棉累计计划出库127.04万吨，累计出库成交124.39万吨，成交率为97.91%，其中国产棉累计成交94.76万吨，成交率97.84%；进口棉累计成交29.63万吨，成交率98.16%。累计成交平均长度为28.3mm，成交平均价格为12518元/吨，累计成交780家。

虽然郑棉主力CF1701合约再度攀升至15380元/吨的高位，但内地库2015/16年度新疆棉现货的跟涨幅度、报涨底气要明显弱于郑棉期货。近两日江苏徐州、南通库及河南郑州库3128B级手摘棉的实际成交价在14200-14400元/吨（公定，公检原单，纤维长度27.8mm），即使纺企的采购量比较大，贸易商能够让利的空间也不大。

据了解，受6月下旬郑棉期货、国储棉竞拍成交价、棉花现货价格联袂大幅上涨的影响，广东、浙江、江苏等地的棉纱经营商为规避风险、降低资金占压纷纷减少甚至停止从棉纺厂提货及采购，OE10S-OE21S、C21S- C40S纱询价、成交较五六月份明显冷清。贸易商表示，一方面部分纱厂C40S及以下棉纱报价普涨400-500元/吨，个别大厂甚至报涨800-1000元/吨，但下游中间商和织布厂消化能力不强，纱价协商成交难度上升，贸易商担心骑虎难下；另一方面，棉纺织厂、服装企业及外贸公司对近期国家有关部门将出台政策增加棉花供应的预期强烈，一旦7月份棉价出现剧烈波动，棉纱贸易商匆忙订货很可能被套住。

河南、湖北等地棉纺厂分析，近日棉花原料大幅上涨引发的成本压力已逐渐向下游纱、布、服装传递，但与郑棉合约CF1701、国储棉成交价短短20天分别上行2690元/吨、1913元/吨相比，棉纱仅报涨500-1000元/吨（实际成交300-800元/吨），而坯布报价处于蠢蠢欲涨的状态，受到内外销订单的强烈抵制。河南某5万锭纱厂反映，由于国储棉竞拍加价和成交价高开高走，2015/16年度棉花现货报价上涨更加夸张，纺C21S、C32S、C40S纱不仅没有利润反而有500-1000元/吨的亏损，纺企为了完成订单，只能加价从贸易商手中争夺国储棉，无形中抬高了棉价，要想跳出这个怪圈，只有减产、停机停产一个办法。

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